The probability of a civilian-led armed assault on the White House as a response to policy changes, such as reductions in citizen benefits, is generally considered low in the United States. There are several reasons for this.
First, the White House is one of the most secure buildings in the world, with multi-layered security protocols managed by the U.S. Secret Service, local law enforcement, and other federal agencies. Any attempt at an attack would face significant logistical and tactical challenges.
Second, the democratic processes in the United States provide a variety of legal and political means for citizens to express dissatisfaction with government policies. These include voting, peaceful protests, lobbying, and engaging in public discourse. Historically, citizens have preferred to utilize these peaceful and lawful methods to enact change rather than resorting to violence.
Moreover, while public frustration and civil unrest can occur in response to unpopular governmental actions, the transition from civil discontent to armed assault requires a level of organization, motivation, and consensus that is rarely reached. Law enforcement agencies continuously monitor and address threats posed by extremist groups to prevent such occurrences.
In conclusion, while reductions in citizen benefits can lead to increased public discontent and protests, the escalation to an armed assault on the White House remains highly unlikely due to the existing security measures and the availability of more practical and lawful alternatives for societal change.